Statistics published by the U.S. Department of State (DOS) indicate a drop in the approval rates of visa applications submitted by citizens of the six majority-Muslim countries targeted by President Trump’s enjoined travel ban.

An analysis of the data reveals that approvals have steadily declined since Trump took office in January, and petitions of citizens from each of the travel ban countries—Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen—experienced the decrease. The trend, moreover, applies to both immigrant and nonimmigrant visa applications.

A Look at the Numbers

DOS normally publishes visa approval statistics yearly, but the agency has included monthly disclosures since March in order to comply with a Trump administration directive.

Data from March and April, included in the table below, demonstrate a roughly 34-percent drop in the approval rate for immigrant visa applications submitted collectively by citizens from the targeted countries. During the same two-month period, the approval rate for nonimmigrant visa applications across the six countries decreased by about 20 percent.
       

                           Source (data): DOS 

The graphs below visually underscore the negative trend.

Source (data): DOS 

   Source (data): DOS 

When compared with approval numbers released for fiscal year 2016, which are tabulated below, the decrease becomes all the more pronounced.

             Source (data): DOS  

While an average of 390 immigrant visas were approved per month in 2016 to citizens from all six countries collectively, the group approval average was 273 for March and about 150 for April—declines of 30 percent and 62 percent, respectively. For nonimmigrant visas (again, collectively among citizens of the six countries), the decrease in approvals between 2016 and March and April of this year was a respective 41 percent and 52 percent.

The Upshot

To be sure, the raw numbers do not tell the entire story, and DOS’s data do not include the total number of applications submitted. Consequently, we cannot definitively conclude whether a higher rejection rate or any other factor—for instance, slower adjudication—is behind the consistent decline in visa application approvals for Iranian, Libyan, Somali, Sudanese, Syrian, and Yemeni foreign nationals.

What we can more reliably conclude, though, is that even though the president’s revised travel ban has been enjoined nationwide—most recently yesterday, in a Fourth Circuit appellate ruling—the policy’s end goal of diminishing, if not outright eliminating, immigration from the targeted countries to the U.S. is nonetheless materializing.

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Former U.S. Consular officer, Attorney Sechyi Laiu joined Zhang & Associates, P.C. on June 26, 2017

At Zhang & Associates, P.C., Attorney Laiu specializes on Consular Processing cases and business development. Attorney Laiu also focuses on TN visas, E visas, CBP administrative proceedings (monetary confiscation, deferred inspection), and overseas financial compliance.

Prior to joining Zhang & Associates, P.C., Attorney Laiu worked for the U.S. Department of State as a Chinese and Portuguese speaking diplomat. As a consular-coned officer who served in Vancouver (Canada), Shenyang (P.R. China), and Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), Attorney Laiu processed over 30,000 visa cases and worked in every section of Consular Affairs overseas (Fraud Prevention Unit, Immigrant Visas, Non-Immigrant Visas, and American Citizen Services).

He will use his experience and expertise to deliver the highest quality of service to our clients.

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Founded in 1996, Zhang & Associates, P.C. offers legal services to clients nationwide in all aspects of U.S immigration law. We have successfully handled thousands of immigration cases.

At Zhang & Associates, P.C., our attorneys and supporting professionals are committed to providing high-quality immigration and non-immigration visa services. We specialize in NIW, EB-1, PERM, and I-485 cases. In the past twenty years, we have successfully helped thousands of clients get green cards. If you plan to apply for a green card, please send your CV to Attorney Jerry Zhang (info@hooyou.com) for a free evaluation.

Zhang & Associates, P.C.

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(05/26/2017)